I was going to write this myself, although I feel like we're in an okay spot at the moment. The outcome of the budget cuts won't be known until march, and by then we should (hopefully) have some offers on the table. If the cuts are as bad as projected, and NIH slashes 25% of their grants, those applying in the next few years are going to be in trouble.
In addition, I think another factor is the crummy economy and people attempting to stay in school and away from the job market.
I would really like to know if anyone has some inside information or hard numbers on the # of applications and offers made this year vs. previous years.