adaptations

Although I have tempered confidence that I will get in somewhere, I cannot say any of my schools are a safety. I am even reapplying to a school that admitted me last year, which seams like a very safe bet. However, the only acceptance that matters to me is one that comes with a funding package. In this economy and given the general competetive nature of admissions, I cannot say with confidence that I will receive a fully funded offer anywhere - certainly not with the confidence that I would call any school a safety.

I'm actually assuming I will combine at least 4 of these. Scream - YES Celebrate with friends and family - YES Cry - Possibility Celebrate with large quantities - More likely than not Celebratory Dance - YES Perhaps I will have some sort of ritual sacrifice - just for good measure.

I have a bottle of Champagne chilling in the fridge. It will get opened with the first acceptance I receive. I will then run down the hall to my best friend, and as she opens the door and sees the bottle, we will both start screaming like 13 year old girls. After that, there will be a bottle for each acceptance with full funding - at least until I run out of champagne (4 bottles waiting).

In total, this took me about 2 to 3 hours to compile. I like numbers and modeling and was just curious if anything interesting would come out of my work. In the end, I think the "day of the week" trends are notable. Hopefully others have found the results interesting.

The results page is school specific. You can also check my post under "Waiting it Out" from this morning. I just completed a quantitative analysis of this this morning. It is posted under "I Must Be Obsessed..."

Anecdotaly there isn't much I would read into it - with one exception. If you get a phone call from a mysterious number on a Saturday - answer it! All, or nearly all, saturday notifications were phone calls admitting people to Stanford Each school seems to differ in how they space out acceptances and rejections. If I felt like running the numbers, I am sure I could come up with a probability model of what the result will be based on the date and day of the week, but even I am not that crazy (yet). Plus, the model would probably be as accurate as if I based it on a correlation of what the weather was the day the notice arrived.

Just in case you haven't checked the other forms and you want some random stats on the notification timeline, check out the "Waiting It Out" section. The post is entitled "I Must be Obsessed..." All the info is specific to Poli. Sci. so I thought I'd cross-reference it here.

Clearly I have too much time on my hands (not actually true, but I am procrastinating like it's my job). I just went through the notification results of all 15 programs I am applying to. I compiled the results to see what days of the week most notices are given, and when in the process. I know - it's essentially useless info, and I should stop caring and just wait. Instead, I'm sharing it with you. For the methods people. There are 199 data points dispersed over 10 weeks. Weeks with less than 3 days were rolled into the following or preceding week of the same month. All results are from the Political Science 2008 application cycle (lost 0.5% due to rounding). Days of the week students were notified: Mon: 14% Tue: 29.5% Wed: 22.5% Thur: 19% Fri: 12.5% Sat: 2% Sun: 0% Notification results by week: Last week of Jan: 2% Feb WK 1: 9.5% WK 2: 11.5% WK 3: 22.5% Wk 4: 13% Mar WK 1: 23% WK 2: 10.5% WK 3: 3% WK 4: 0.5% April WK 1: 4%

To be honest, I wouldn't read anything into it. You could speculate different scenerios, but there is no way to know.

I don't mean to be rude, but why are you calling diffference-in differences, IV's and randomization avante-garde? If you're into modeling these are just tools of the trade.

fenderpete, I know this process is extremelly stressful, but to be honest - this is not a big deal. They will let you submit a letter of rec. and your file will be evaluated just like everyone elses. The committees are used to this sort of thing. Last year UCSD lost all of my application materials. Although they weren't entirely sure it was their fault, they essentially admitted they probably received them, but they weren't sure where they got put. I fedexed them a new package, and there were no issues. Stressful - absolutely, but it won't hurt your chances. GL

A Few Points: First, I wouldn't lie about being rejected. Not only does being denied at a top school not reflect poorly on you, it would reflect poorly on your friends if they thought less of you because you weren't admitted. If your friends only want you for the reputation of the graduate school you will attend, your friends have issues. Second, a huge part of this process (at least for many of us) is swallowing our pride and handling the rejections. Many of us are used to a great deal of success (especially if you are the type of person who really has a shot at a top school), so perhaps this is a good learning experience for many people - rejection will happen - now learn to handle it. (Also, if you haven't experienced rejection, you should probably date more) On another issue, some people said they would still attend their top choice without funding, even if their #2, #3 or whatever gave them funding. From my experience, those of you with this luxury are in the minority. I certainly know I could not afford a 5-6 year Ph.D. program without funding, especially when you consider the likely future income as an academic. Furthermore, if the school is not willing to fund you, it is a good indicator of how you may be treated in the department. On the other hand, if the school is willing to invest in you, they have a much stronger incentive to make sure you succeed and have a positive experience.

After thinking I was all done with applications, I decided to add one more (very last minute). Washington University in St. Louis is back on my list.

I just increased mine to 15. I contacted a school I had applied to (and was admitted to) to ask about reapplying. They said I could do it for free, and that they would pull any of my earlier materials I still wanted to use.

SharperImage: Unfortunately all I know about UC Irvine is that they are ranked 35 by USNWR, which essentially means I know nothing. Out of curiosity what other schools are you applying to? Good luck,

Before I begin, I should say that everything I post in this section is speculative. It is based on conversations with faculty from admissions committees and discussions with doctoral students, so take it with a grain of salt. GRE/GPA: I think the GRE is generally used for a cutoff, but I don't think 700 is a minimum. I was just looking at Duke and UCSDs admission statistics and it is clear they admit people who received less than a 700 on their quantitative section (even if there aren't that many of them). U. of Washington (ranked 25) had an average quantitative score last year of 702 for admitted students. My suspicion is that GPA carries more weight. Of course it's not the be all and end all, but it is a pretty good indicator of your potential - unless you've been out of school for a long time. SOP: Clearly very important! Probably the most important thing. LORS: Next most important. However, if they aren't from academics they don't matter as much. Numerous committee members told me if it's from a politician, then it really means nothing. Writing sample: Assuming you've made the cut to those really being considered, these certainly weigh in the decision process. (although it is somewhat surprising how many schools don't require them, i.e. Harvard, UCSD, etc...) However, I do think committee's are looking for work that is polished enough to be published (or nearly). After all, they will have numerous applicants who already have publications (of some sort). As for work experience and extracurricular - they matter the least. I'd say work experience matters more, if it contributed directly to your research, writing, or related skills. Those are my thoughts on the subject. Ciao,

Applied to 14: Pessimistic Version: (Other thank 100% rejection) 2 acceptances, 1 waitlist, 11 rejections Hopefully Realistic: 3 acceptances Absolute Optimism: 5+ acceptances

I applied to 14 this year.

Doesn't bother me at all, because I would place a big bet that it isn't accurate. Also given past trends, there is no reason to expect results from Northwestern yet. But at least it gives us something to talk about At least it's only a couple more weeks before the steady trickle of results start coming in! I have been able to keep my obsession in check thus far, but I am willing to bet around Jan. 28th I'll start becoming irrational and check my email every few hours.

After reconsidering things, I think I would have added one school to my list. It would have been a backup, but since they admitted me last year, it would have been a relatively secure backup. Instead I left them off because I already had 14 schools on my list, all of which I would prefer to attend (with maybe one exception). Hopefully I'll get into at least one of the fourteen, and this will be a non-issue.

I wouldn't start counting yourself out yet. Although the waiting becomes painful, it may be best to just let things rest and relax (once you finish your last two apps.) and then start worrying about Plan B once you've had time to decompress. As for my Plan B - when I did this last year, I ended up taking a Master's program as a conciliation prize, which has turned into an amazing Plan B. Had I not received the Master's I would have certainly left my job and gone traveling for at least part of the summer, with the intent of resuming work (hopefully more meaningful than my last) in the fall. This year, I am more optimistic, so I don't have a solid Plan B, but it would probably entail 1) Teaching Community College (or being a lecturer somewhere) 2) working at a think tank, or 3) taking whatever job is available and will pay the bills. All of which would probably come after taking at least a month to travel and relax. Cheers,

I know it's hard, but you've got a while to wait. If you applied to Emory there is a chance you'd hear at the very end of January (probably later), but otherwise it's best not to worry about it until early Feb. Even then, allot of the schools wait until March (regardless of when their deadline was)... You can always search the results to see when the schools sent notifications in the past. That should keep you occupied for an afternoon. GL with the waiting.

So I hadn't even considered that they would update the percentiles. At the very least, I assumed you just kept the percentile that was accurate at the time you took it. When I went and checked, I now see that my 5.0 on writing was initially a 73%, dropped to a 71%, and is now at a 77%. Hmm.

My general subfield is in international relations and I also have a deep appreciation for methods and formal modeling. My previous work and current focus are primarily in international political economy. I have done quite a bit with int'l trade, law, and dispute settlement. Although these have been my areas of research, I also enjoy studying int'l security and cooperation. Although my SOP and previous experience are rather focused, I am very open to adjusting my focus to take advantage of the strengths of the faculty where I attend (assuming I get in). Although I applied to programs that have a wide range of expertise, there are numerous faculty at each school that I respect and would be happy to work with. In truth, there have been few areas I have not enjoyed studying. Thus, my final research pursuit will be slightly different depending on where I attend. No matter where I go, I am confident my affinity for multiple methods will allow me to enjoy working with a range of faculty. Hmm, I hope that helps clarify things and doesn't confuse them. Ciao,

To: jackassjim Welcome to the discussion. It looks like you have good numbers and experience. I wish you the best of luck. Given that location will be so important for you and your wife, and that you are already applying to Northwestern in Chicago, can I ask why you did not apply to U. of Chicago? Just curious... Cheers,