Ok guys,
So I just got off the phone with the Admissions people at IHEID. They said that they had an IT problem this morning which meant that admissions emails were incorrectly sent to a large number of applicants. They clarified that as my online status said refused, I had in fact been rejected. Anybody else in the same boat, I'm really sorry but this is the case - if the online portal says refused you've been rejected.
If the online portal says 'under consideration', then you are still being considered for a place - congratulations, hope you don't have too long to wait!
I told them on the phone that while I appreciated that IT errors happened, a mistake as large as this which created false hope in my view required an official apology by email and they said that someone was in charge of sending an email explaining what had happened and apologising, so we should receive that soon.
All very best to everyone!