There have been a few new statistics PhD programs created in recent years (University of Texas Austin, UC-Santa Cruz, UC-Irvine). Many of these programs seem to have very productive researchers, some of whom came from jobs at more established programs. Is there any way to know what the academic job outcomes for these programs will be like? Would turning down a top 20 program for one of these new programs make sense if the research fit is better? What other factors should we consider when evaluating these programs?