I haven't, but from what I've heard college placement is not announced until ~8 weeks after admissions. Also, leveluptbc, I've found a UK forum, the student room, which has a lot more people talking about this topic. Apparently people who get nominated for the Ertegun get notified mid-march or earlier, and have an interview. And, this is mostly me speculating, but I would think that those who get nominated for the Ertegun but fail to get it have a higher chance of getting the Clarendon.
In other words, I don't think we have much of a chance. I've reconciled myself to that.