Two comments: First, to suggest that only 2% of applicants can get into a decent Ph.D. program is just patently false. Example: Stanford is the top history department in the country (tied with a couple others), and the most selective, and as to Americanists -- by far the most popular and most competitive field -- they accepted over 3% this year, and wait listed a couple more -- this, in a year where the number of spaces is the smallest ever due to the economy. But that's the MOST rigorous it gets. Further down the line, take a place like BU, whose acceptance rate in the graduate History department as of a couple years ago, was over 40 percent! (Not sure how many of those were offered funding.) Granted, this year things are worse because the money's tight, and the pool is larger than ever. But 2% is pure hyperbole, and you are discouraging many people on this board with such comments.
Second, for all the time you spent learning esoteric vocabulary and other useless standardized test tricks for the GRE, and otherwise doing everything in your power to coddle and impress anonymous, pointy-headed academics sitting on some stiff admissions committee -- most of whom, let's face it, history will promptly forget -- you could have written two dissertations and made history yourself.
Please don't take this the wrong way. I am just trying to give people some perspective. These adcomms are not the arbiters of your worth and abilities. Where you get your Ph.D. -- and, indeed, whether or not you get your PhD in the first instance -- do not matter. One of our greatest and most respected historians, Joyce Appleby, did not go to a top school. Many others -- David McCullough, Parrington, Ron Chernow -- never wasted time getting a Ph.D. Going even further, one of the greatest and most trenchant thinkers and writers of the 20th century, Eric Hoffer -- who, by the way, taught at Berkeley, received the presidential medal of freedom from Ronald Reagan and was well-respected throughout academia -- never graduated from high school! Hoffer did it with a few library cards.
Getting into Yale, Harvard, Princeton, or Stanford is far more likely to make you lazy and complacent as you rest on your laurels. To be a great historian, you need to be HUNGRY! Those places will not make you hungry. I have a friend who got into a tippy-top graduate humanities program and then proceeded to spend the next 6 years of his life doing pretty much nothing, except lusting after undergraduates and (on worse days) cougars who, as far as I can tell, considered him a buffoon. Now his Department's denying him funding and threatening to kick him out. Another friend went to a lesser known school, finished in 4 years, published his dissertation, and is now writing articles on politico.com There is no substitute for hard work -- not Yale, Harvard, or Princeton. The question is not, Where did you go to school?, but rather What have you produced? What have you done? What do you believe? If you have a good idea now, chances are that six years at Harvard are not going to make it any better and might even make it worse. Alternatively, if you don't have a good idea now, Harvard's not going to give you one.
There, I'll shut up now.