I agree with most of that, although I don't think she was saying that to be overly optimistic, she holds a lot of weight in the program (she started it) so I'm assuming after talking to the person she given some kind of information that created that impression. It wouldn't make sense for her to come out with that kind of information for no reason, especially since I hadn't asked for it. With that said, once again, I don't think it is sure thing by any means, and you're right, she could be completely wrong. I just don't think that the list quite works that way in this situation is all, the program has less than 20 students across 6 years, which is what made me think it might have to do with funding since they don't admit students who are not fully funded.
I agree that it's important to remain realistic, and it is good to be brought down to earth in case it doesn't work out.