I'm friends with someone who was a panelist reviewer for applications this year. They said that they gave folks an extra week to get their reviews in (maybe because some panelists are government workers and didn't have access to their emails for 5 weeks?), so I imagine if they do send out mid-March update emails that they won't come until next week (Friday March 22nd; last year they came out on Friday March 16th). That said, I think you have a point about them just keeping quiet.
Also for what it's worth, I think my friend said that they had ~2200 applications submitted this year and are hoping to award somewhere between 200 and 300 fellowships. Provided what happened last year, though, I'm not holding my breath.