From what he told us at the interview weekend, it seems like it can be pretty random, e.g. moral theology might have one of its accepted students turn down its offer, but then the offer might go to the first person on the waitlist for CJA, HC, ST, etc.
Does anyone know how long it usually takes before good or bad news comes to the waitlisted at ND and Marquette? I'm trying to figure out if it's worth waiting, or if I should accept another offer soon. For the sake of the program I've been accepted to, I'm not keen on waiting until April 15. The chair at ND said that, as a rule, it doesn't drag out too long, but I'm not sure what that means.