I'm sure a lot of it depends on the university's prior record in their percentages of those who accept their first offer. For example, a dept looking for a cohort of 10-12 will likely accept 20-25 with a yield % of about 50%. If enough people reject the offer, then schools start admitting those on the wait-list. Additionally, I'm sure the open house recruiting week also determines a lot of things.
I applied to 9 schools (8/9 were top 30), rejected from 5, wait-listed at 2, and accepted at 2.
I was accepted to my #3 choice, while being wait-listed at my #2. Upon visiting #3, I was immediately impressed and thought, "this should have been my number one choice!" - there was about 5-6 professors that I could work with there. I immediately accepted the offer the day after visitation.
That being said, I wouldn't being surprised if I got an offer at me #2 school in a few days.
But I wanted to ask, how likely is it to get accepted off the wait-list (assuming that you are the first on the list).
