I will be applying to Statistics PhD programs this fall. I had a few questions with respect to forming a prospective school list, which I will include at the end. Below is some information to give some context while still maintaining anonymity (I hope).
Undergrad Institution: Top 10 US Private University Major(s): Mathematics and Statistics GPA: ~3.75 cumulative, ~3.88 Math/Stat
Type of Student: Domestic Male GRE General Test: 166 Q, 164 V (W pending) GRE Subject Test in Mathematics: 9/15 score pending (I found it tricky lol)
Programs Applying: Statistics PhD
Research Experience: ~2 years. Preparing to submit a paper this fall. Field is one of {computational biology, chemistry, physics, economics}, i.e. applied area with a tradition of quantitative/computational methods (intentionally vague to maintain anonymity)
Awards/Honors/Recognitions: None really Pertinent Activities or Jobs: Grader for various math courses. Software engineering internships for two summers.
Letters of Recommendation: 1 "very, very strong" letter from research PI (words from the horse's mouth). Planning to ask two other profs from math/stat courses, which should be solid.
Math/Statistics Grades:
Multivariable Calculus (A)
Intro to Proofs (B+)
Real Analysis I, II, III (all of Rudin; A, A, A-)
Abstract Linear Algebra (A)
Abstract Algebra I, II, III (Groups, Rings, Galois Theory from Dummit and Foote; A, A, A-)
Complex Analysis (A)
Mathematical Statistics I (A)
Intro to Probability Models (essentially stochastic processes; A)
Measure Theory (A)
Point-Set Topology (B+)
Optimization (A)
Modern Inference (A)
Functional Analysis (A)
Misc:
i) My research interests skew towards theory (maybe Probability Theory, ML Theory, Bayesian Nonparametrics, or Monte Carlo methods, but I'm pretty open). I like doing mathematics and proving theorems. However, the phenomenon I'm interested in are not in the realm of classical mathematics; I'm interested in the things that statisticians study.
ii) The ultimate goal is a career in academia doing research. I understand it is quite difficult to secure a tenure-track position, and theory work seems to be only done in universities. However, I am trying to keep my expectations realistic, and although I wasn't totally thrilled about my software industry internships, it was honest work with its own interesting, technical challenges. A PhD will also lead to more of the interesting work done industry, so this is an upside if I have to leave academia. Nevertheless, I am currently aiming at an academic career.
Schools: Applying to most of the "Top 15" (by US News), although I've added a few "safety" schools (is there even such a thing at the grad level?). For sake of clarity, list is below.
Stanford, Berkeley, Chicago, CMU, Harvard, Washington, Michigan, Duke, UPenn, Columbia, Yale, UNC, Wisconsin, Cornell, UIUC, Northwestern, Rice.
Questions:
1) What are a few safety schools to which I have a pretty solid chance of being admitted?
2) Am I a competitive applicant for the schools listed above?
3) I am aware that the academic job market for Mathematics is probably the worst job market in existence. It is my impression that the situation is better in Statistics, but still not great. It seems like at least one postdoc is needed before becoming a tenure-track assistant prof. Is this impression accurate? Do your prospects change with research area? (i.e. theory positions worse than more applied ones?)
Thanks to everyone for taking a look. This forum has been really informative!