FWIW I also did my undergrad in stats at Cal a couple years ago and had a similar (but slightly worse) gpa. I applied to Stat PhDs this cycle and ended up getting into a couple of top 40 programs, with the caveat that they were big state schools so were easier to get into. Our LoR are obviously going to be different, as well as the rest of our resumes, so I don't know how seriously you should take this data point but this is just to say that the gpa you have now is definitely not terrible.
One potentially important point though is which classes you're taking. I'm not sure about masters but PhD programs really care about real analysis (or similar advanced math class). I have no idea how admissions committees will compare someone who did P/NP for real analysis during the crisis vs. someone who got an A or A-. The cynical part of me thinks that there must be at least a couple of top programs that will overtly prefer the latter over the former, but I'm obviously just speculating. But if masters programs don't value real analysis that much (or you're not taking it) then this is a moot point.
justarandomguy got a reaction from mrstat in Pass/Fail vs. Letter Grades This Semester