To make you feel more hopeful if you are waitlisted, I'm guessing that the numbers are currently skewed, as I think a person who received the award/waitlisted is more likely to update the spreadsheet than someone who didn't. Also, there is some selection bias with the people part of this thread caring more about their applications and probably being more viable candidates than most. Nonetheless, I don't know the past rate at which alternates are given the award, so it's all up in the air.