Yes. If you have a POI who has agreed to supervise you (and I assume fund you), it's almost guaranteed that you'll get accepted by the graduate committee.
First of all, you don't have to be anxious or stressed out. I read your post. You seem to be concerned about a lot of things. I am not able to answer many of your very technical questions. But trust me there is no need to be worried about any of these things. Try to relax and enjoy your senior year! Do not let the pressure get to you. Have a social life, have fun, and talk to your friends (especially when you feel low or are stressed out).
Here is another fact that may soothe you: most students applying to masters or phd programs in statistics don't have nearly as much experience as you do. You have done great work and should be proud of your achievements! Master programs are often less selective than PhD programs. Your profile has far exceeded requirements of many programs out there. I'm sure that you will get into some of the places on your list.
Finally, good luck!
paroisse got a reaction from murr5110 in MSc Geography at Waterloo