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Type of student: Domestic Asian Male Undergrad: US large public (very well-known) Major: Math GPA: 4.0 Courses: ~10 grad courses GRE: 166 Q, 167 V, 4.5 W, 86% mGRE Experience/Other: -- Should have a good paper in the next few months with my adviser following work over the last 2-3 years (so maybe 4-5 by the time I apply -- Expect at least two (very?) good recommendation letters, all from well-known profs. The issue is that there are very few top institutions (~2 out of the top 5, and nothing else near them) with anybody in the area that I am interested in, and my letters are definitely going to go mostly into my work in this area. The other schools that have people in this area are far worse as far as the quality of my likely adviser and the overall institution is concerned (top 50 maybe) is concerned. What are the best chances I can expect to get into at least one of these two schools?