How odd. I've been wondering if the application portal would provide any "breadcrumbs" to follow. From previous threads I've looked at on the grad cafe, folks who received offers from their department noted that their application status in the portal transitioned from "Under review by department" to "Under review by degree committee" and eventually "Under review by GAO". So, if your application moves past the departmental review, that's likely a good sign (at least, for a departmental acceptance).
I should note that my best friend (a previous GC Scholar) was rejected from the PhD program he applied for, so nothing is guaranteed even with a previous GC on your resume. He applied during the first week of October, and received his rejection letter a couple weeks ago.