¯\_(ツ)_/¯ i don't know, i guess i just have a different perspective on the process of applying to MFA programs in writing.
who gets accepted and who doesn't is entirely subjective, and isn't reliant at all on how many or how few programs a person applies to. sure, applying to more programs will give your portfolio more of a chance to be seen by a program that might accept it. but there's more that goes on behind the scenes: the cohort the university already has, the staff that may or may not teach specific styles of writing, the personal opinions of application readers, the type of cohort they hope to create, etc etc.
for me personally, i chose to apply to much fewer programs that i know check off all of my boxes as opposed to wasting the money on applications (money that i don't have) for other fantastic programs that don't necessarily serve my personal goals.
i think being optimistic about this process is vital-- there's no use in deciding you're f*cked before you even get the 'you're f*cked' email. plus, as artists, we all must be resilient. negativity does not serve resilience well.