I'm wondering the same thing. I was rejected in the second round last time, and I got my results about 3 weeks before the people who were accepted did (based on the posts here and the dates listed for previous winners on the wenner-gren site), so I'm treating no news as good news, but obviously I don't know if anyone has started getting rejections yet. Last year's winners had their grants awarded October 13-26, except for one person who was granted the award on 11/20 - there always seem to be a few stragglers, and I'm wondering if these people were waitlisted or something. If we base it on how long the second round of review took last time (12-14 weeks), it should be October 14-28, so that range is probably right on target.