I propose reaching out to your graduate unit for help. For one, if you receive the award, they take the lion's share, which puts you in the same boat. Secondly, some faculty members may have served on the NSERC committee, which means they know better than anyone else here what to target.
Not sure if it helps, but if you're like me, receiving the email late this morning and thinking it must be a rejection as it's been so late, you still have a chance. I got PGS, and I received the email at 11 AM EST.