Here is some information from the Sam.gov solicitation for NDSEG vendors (i.e., the company contracted to run the fellowship selection process).
4. ESTIMATED PROGRAM TIMELINE
Program Marketing and Outreach June - October
Fellowship Application Period August/September – October/November
Evaluation Panel Application Period September – November
Mentor Selection Period September – December
Fellowship Application Review Phase I December – mid January
Fellowship Application Review Phase II February - March
Fellowship Final Selections & RISC Reviews March- April
Fellowship Award Notifications Sent May
Fellowship Award Announced May/June
Fellowship Award Begins 01 September
Program Management Reviews August, November, February, and May
Evaluation of applicants: The 2026 and 2027 NDSEG selection panel board(s) will review and rank all applicants. The initial review will result in the top 20% per research discipline being selected and eligible for final selection as DoD NDSEG fellows. Final selection of DoD NDSEG fellows will be made by DoD selection panels. DoD selection panels will consist of scientists and engineers from the Department of the Air Force (the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) and the United States Space Force (USSF)), the Army Research Office (ARO), and the Office of Naval Research (ONR).
Only 20% of all applications are forwarded to final selection. What does this mean in the context of this year's current results? It is unclear, as gradcafe's userbase may consist of more motivated/successful applicants than the general pool. All except two users in the google sheet received a 2/6 update. However, only 23% of users who contributed to the google sheet received a 2/6 update and a 2/12 update. None of the reddit users who commented received a 2/12 update.
It is likely that the 2/12 update is more representative of who will be sent to final review than the 2/6 update, as it roughly matches the percentage of applicants expected to pass review round II. However, there is no real way of knowing. Also, someone deleted ~30 rows of the excel sheet today. To see the old rows, look in the version history.