This is what I suspected based on previous years. Previous years had passed 30-40% of applicants to the DoD panels I believe, but with the funding cuts and likely elevated number of applicants it's not surprising that they're being much more selective this year. Of course we don't know exactly what's going on behind the scenes, so we won't really know until the awards are released. I'm personally leaning pessimistic as I didn't get a 2/12, but the NDSEG is super competitive even in normal years so it's no big deal tbh
Also fellowship rewards are released in May this year lol? That would be unfortunate if that were the case as many of us are probably were hoping that a potential NDSEG fellowship could help sway decisions for PhD admissions.