UCSB all the way!!! I've heard that the staff there is really nice and the weather??? You'd be living in the land of the lotus, lol!
However, I shall quote from a close friend of mine who has a Ph.D. from Duke; he says, "They are instructed to hire the newest, hottest, up and coming fresh out of grad school candidates, but while this sounds great and all, [he just can't] recommend the program these days since it's very lopsided." I know that we don't know each other, but please believe me when I say that this guy's word is solid gold. What is your area of concentration? If Duke has a prof or two in your area, then I'm glad the decision is not mine, lol!
Either way, they are both good programs, and congratulations on such a rough decision!