Unfortunately, I can't help you specifically with your question, but I thought I'd add something else you should consider...
You might want to look at not just the reputation and career options afterwards, but also at the 'fit' of the research you might be doing at either place. Are there many members of faculty in the specific field you're interested in? Are their interests well aligned with your own? These are the things I've been considering in my decision making process, and though I've not totally made up my mind, after carefully looking through various faculty's research again, I realised one place was a better "research fit" for me. You mentioned publishing, and I think doing research you are well prepared for, familiar with, and interested in will probably enhance your likelihood of publishing too.
Good luck with your choice!