I agree with you in large part--this is nothing but toxic and although I can't help but take it a bit personally, I definitely understand that it's largely up to chance. Part of the reason I'm a bit antsy is that my interests walk some interdisciplinary boundaries, and I was pretty sure Northwestern was the perfect fit-or at least the best of the schools I applied to. At least with UMich I didn't have to take it quite as personally because the fit wasn't right and they're supposedly even more competitive.
I don't think any of these (or any of the schools I applied to) are easy to get into, and I'm not even sure I'm comfortable saying which might be easier than others based on so little information, but my thought process was more that I might be in some peril based on the NWU decision, given the goodness of fit (albeit assessed by me) and the fact that northwestern didn't make every competitive candidate's list for comparative the way some other schools do.