It's impossible to say, really. I don't really understand their criteria as well as I understand the NSF GRFP criteria. Your undergrad experience is very similar to mine, and I also was a goldwater recipient, yet I was rejected for the NDSEG in my first year of graduate studies, and will likely be again this year. If you're in a field like Aerospace Engineering or Electrical engineering, you got a decent chance at the NDSEG, otherwise, the competition is very stiff and it probably comes down to splitting hairs.
You still have two more years to apply though, so no matter what the result this time around, keep up the hard work.