In my experience, the chances are just about the same, if not better. My understanding of the whole process is that if you apply through the school, you get ranked by the department in comparison to the other students applying, but even so, all of the applications go out to the ministry. If you apply from the outside, you don't get ranked but your application ends up in the same place. I applied from NB last year to start my MA in Ontario and got it right away, the only downside to the whole process was getting faculty to have some knowledge of how OGS works to help me with the statement of interest and other things... the awards coordinator at the university didn't even know out-of-province students could apply for the OGS, she didn't believe me when I said I got one.
