That first wave included both the easily-decided rejects and the easily-decided accept-without-fundings (I was one of the latter). My best guess is that the 20% remaining are both some of those definitely-accept-but-do-we-fund? debates AND some of those do-we-accept-or-not debates. Overall, I'd say the odds then are pretty good, since some of the posters here are probably in that first group, and even some of those in the second will still get good answers. I think, reading the blog, that the ones not released aren't definitely in OR out; they're the hardest of the ad com's decisions.
Then again, I'm no expert - just trying to make sense of the Admissions blog posts and stave off despair for those still waiting. Think happy, fellowship-offer thoughts...