Hi guys! I'm also a long time lurker.
After applying for NSERC for the fourth time I've come to realize something that people haven't really mentioned yet on this forum. I was denied 1 USRA and 2 PGS-Ms. This year though, I managed to snag a Vanier. My application really hasn't changed much from last year, but the way in which I wrote it definitely has. I really tried to emphasize my enthusiasm for what I was doing.
I'm trying to say that two people with identical credentials could be ranked very differently depending on their respective writing styles.
Also, luck plays a larger role than it should. I'm not saying that those who got the award don't deserve one. It's actually the opposite. Every application that makes it to Ottawa probably deserves one. The reviewers HAVE to rank you. Even the most trivial details can be the difference between an award offer or rejection. Who really knows which of those details the reviewers care about at any given moment?
Wish everyone the best!