Estragon

I'd say you're right about 3 and 4. Notre Dame deserves to move up and if it doesn't it'll be largely attributable to out-of-touch people who still think Maureen Hallinan is the only person there, or sheer bias. They've built like crazy in the past few years. 1 is arguable, as it's a relatively small department and a little niche-y. 2 is probably wrong. Duke lost Brady, sure, but since the last round of rankings they also hired Steve Vaisey (from Berkeley) and Martin Ruef (from Princeton).