Help deciding where to apply...?

[Turra]

Hello, 

I'm a Canadian university student looking to apply for PhD programs in the U.S. in physical oceanography (specifically, ocean optics/satellite oceanography/remote sensing). The major blemish on my application is that my GPA is a 3.1. I want to know if the schools I'm aiming for are too zealous and if so, what others I should consider (if I'm not good enough, I'll likely do a Master's - though I wish I didn't have to). The reason my GPA is poor is that I took a lot of advanced pure mathematics classes to fulfill my specialization, but I'm obviously not good at it. I can't really explain why it took me three years to stop taking math courses and accept that I don't like it, but it did, and mental health wasn't helping. I don't want to make too many excuses though. Not sure how admissions committees for oceanography will weigh courses like abstract algebra and complex analysis. I still have the relevant coursework in differential equations, chemistry, and physics as asked by the program (at least 1 year, though these were in first/second year and my grades are fine in them). 

Here is some other info: 

1. 1.5 years working at a government agency directly working on research projects in aquatic limnology that are relevant to my graduate pursuits. 

2. 3 poster presentations (two at school conference, one at National Mathematics Meeting); third-author on a talk given at an international conference (given by my work supervisor)

3. Several research projects (my program requires we do at least 3 independent research projects on our own), but 3 main ones are particular to my graduate work and are most recent, including my senior thesis 

4. One publication in an annual book released by my program (but it's unrelated to my graduate interests so not sure if it's something to mention). 

My GRE scores are (estimated): Q:165-167, V:155, AWA: 5.5 

I have a pretty clear graduate interest and research statement (read: I know exactly what I want to research), and in fact, the schools I'm applying to all have this (or something very similar) listed as a current project. Not sure how important this is, but thought I'd mention it. 

I want to apply to: UCSD/SB/SC, Delaware, Maine, Stony Brook, Maryland, and USF. Do I stand a chance at any of these schools? 

Thank you all in advance!