GPA requirements

[StatSig]

I'm new to this forum, and will be applying to graduate schools as a domestic applicant in a year. I'm slightly worried about my GPA though: I have a 3.51, and some applied stats research experience. I've been reading a lot of the posts, and it seems like a majority of people here have 3.8+, so I'm slightly worried that I might not even stand a chance. Would my GPA be enough, or would taking 2 years and going through a master's program be a better call?

 

[Stat Assistant Professor]

There are several factors that could be mitigating:

- the prestige of your undergraduate institution and its reputation for grade deflation/academic rigor (if any). If you went to Caltech, MIT, or UChicago, etc., a GPA under 3.7 is likely to be more acceptable than a 4.0 from a regional state school. IIRC, one participant on this forum attended UChicago and got admitted to Berkeley Stats PhD with an overall GPA under 3.7 (but a GPA that was higher in the math classes).

- your GPA in your major (whether or not that's higher than your overall GPA and what your major is), your GPA in math classes, and if your academic performance shows noticeable improvement over time. If your GPA is a 3.51 because of subpar performance your freshman year, that's one thing, and you can have one of your LOR writers emphasize the upward trend. If your major was physics or engineering or something and your major GPA was pretty good overall, you might still have a chance.

Nevertheless, you might be out of the running for the very top tier PhD programs (if you want to do a PhD). But I don't think you're automatically out of the discussion for respectable mid-tier programs. If you could contextualize your profile better, we can give more targeted advice here.

Edited August 30, 2018 by Applied Math to Stat

[bayessays]

It won't disqualify you, but you need o have something to make up for it.  I had the same GPA and got into top programs, but had more serious stats research experience than almost anyone else at that level. If you don't have something to help distinguish you, you're going to be a below average applicant at top schools. How highly ranked of a program do you want to go to and what was your undergrad institution's prestige? Can't really give you more insight on what would be good next steps without that info. 

[StatSig]

I'm an applied math and stats major. I had subpar performance freshman year and junior year, but made it up during my sophomore and senior years (graduated already and am currently working as a data analyst). My lower grades junior year were due to a string of personal problems with family and relationships, and I worked my ass off senior year (took more advanced math, and even the graduate analysis sequence at my school) to make up for it. That being said all of my grades are either As or B's. I received a c+ in linear algebra my first year, but I retook the class at another University (my school doesn't allow repeats for those who passed), and aced it. My in major GPA is around 3.5 as well. My undergrad istitution is well known, and also has a top 50 biostatistics program, but I'm looking at general stats, and undergraduate students don't really interact with the biostatistics Dept.

 

[Stat Assistant Professor]

Your major GPA is a bit lower than the most competitive applicants. If your GPA in your math/stat classes were ~3.8 or higher, then your chances would have been better, even with the 3.5 overall GPA. With a 3.5 GPA in math classes, that suggests to me that you had about an even spread of A's and B's in math classes, and most competitive candidates would have more A's than B's. 

I think your chances would dramatically improve if you completed a Masters degree first and excelled there. With a Masters degree and strong performance there, you could probably get into one of the PhD programs in the 20-40 range for Stats (not the pooled USNWR ranking but the separated list here). If I were you and I were really determined to get a PhD in Statistics, I would prioritize Masters degrees, and maybe send out a few PhD applications if you can afford it. Then after getting the Masters, I would still target mainly schools in the 20-40 range, but apply to a few more highly ranked ones and see if you get lucky.

 

[StatSig]

@Applied Math to Stat are you talking about the top programs or all of them in general. I doubt I'd be competitive for the top few, but would I be out of the running for mid to low rank programs as well without a master's degree?

[bayessays]

You haven't let us know what type of undergrad you go to (the prestige of the institution itself, its biostat ranking is irrelevant).  I think you could probably get into Mizzou-level PhD programs right now assuming a near-170 GRE score.  Your chances are better and you could probably stretch upward if your top 50 school is, for example, Columbia rather than Iowa. 

[StatSig]

Top 50 biostatistics program, and top 20 US news for undergraduate studies. Yeah I'm sorry I forgot to mention my GRE, but I have a 167 in Math and 335 overall.

[Stat Assistant Professor]

37 minutes ago, statislife said:

@Applied Math to Stat are you talking about the top programs or all of them in general. I doubt I'd be competitive for the top few, but would I be out of the running for mid to low rank programs as well without a master's degree?

I don't have any personal experience with schools below the tier that I mentioned, but assuming that you have acceptable GRE scores (which really only serves as a "sanity check") and decent to strong recommendation letters, I would consider Ohio State a reach school for you. I looked at the Results page for some of the schools, and it seems like you *might* have a shot at some places (e.g. for UT Austin, I see that someone was admitted to their Statistics PhD program with a 3.2 GPA). I wouldn't say that this is very common though, and we can only speculate (e.g. it's possible that this applicant did very poorly their first few years but then aced all their classes in their junior and senior year with high grades in all their math classes). Most of the acceptances are from people who report having higher GPAs.

As I said, if you have the funds, you can apply to a few PhD programs, but I think that it would be best to prioritize Masters programs.

Edited August 31, 2018 by Applied Math to Stat

[bayessays]

Considering you go to an Ivy, I think you'll get into some programs in the 50-70 range on US News, maybe in the 40 range if your letters are really great. If you got into a good MS program and did well, you could improve that a lot. Depends on your goals. There is a lot of speculation involved in this since profiles like this aren't super common, there's less data on lower ranked programs, and so much depends on letters in a case like this.