Are Reputations/Trends of Programs Reliable?

[unwelded]

I'm choosing between two PhD programs right now. Both are top ranked, but school 1 has a reputation of being the leader in the field. It also fits me better intellectually and socially. 

School 2 fits me as well, but there would def be some major adjustments, again intellectually and socially. The appeal of this school is that while it dosent have a reputation within American/Ethnic Studies as the cutting edge - its offering more money, its at the most well known ivy league in the world (more on why i even think this matters), and it has an interesting placement record. Whereas the hot trending school 1 places most of its students into WGS/Ethnic/American Studies departments, school 2 places most of its students into traditional disciplines (especially History) and at damn good schools too. Furthermore, school 2 offers a terminal masters in a traditional discipline. 

My thinking is that, while school 1 is where most of the "action" is at, school 2 is more of a strategic choice because of the prestige of the school (useful if I go outside academia) and that I can become legible to traditional disciplines which is where most of the jobs are. What if the market for Ethnic and American Studies becomes even worse than it is now? What if what makes school 1 hot right now dies down? 

This is all conjecture so I don't know if I'm thinking about this right. Looking for opinions