Do Acceptances Go Down in Recessions?

[notatomato]

Poli Sci Ph.D Apps. 

So I only got into one school which was the bottom of my 13 school list.  I was surprised, and learned it was because of my 56th percentile Quantitative GRE score after talking with profs, as the rest of my application is fairly strong, but it looks like I was desk rejected at most places.  So I did some practice last month and I have gotten a 94th percentile on a ETS practice test.  This would put my GRE scores at above the 90th percentile for both reading and verbal. 

As such, I have decided to reapply for next year.  Now that there is a likely recession coming, do you all think that will mean schools won't be accepting as many people next cycle?

[dscsms]

I've heard some discussion that because it's not clear where schools will be this fall and international students might be having visa trouble, many accepted in the current cycle might defer for next year. One of my masters programs said that they would accept deferrals, although another of mine said that reapplication would be necessary. So the applicant pool may be a bit unusual for the next cycle, regardless of a recession.

[Whitley]

I totally agree with DSCSMS. Dude, I understand you want to go to a good program, but since the covid19 outbreaks, everything including the academia may change in the coming fall semester or even next year. You never know what's gonna happen next year and some program 100% depends on outside fundings. I've heard some programs shrink their projects since the pandemic destroy the economy. 

If I were you, I probably will go the school which sent me the offer. Even it is your safety school, you applied for it with a reason. It is not the deadline yet, communicate with your professors and let them give you some advice. 

[sad pepe]

This question has appeared a lot lately, and based on what a lot of people have been saying, it seems like in light of the economic impact of the coronavirus, the number of grad school applications will likely see a significant increase in the coming years, and as such admissions will become very competitive. Not to mention some programs will probably have smaller cohorts in the coming years along with decreased funding. Of course I don't know for sure, it's probably better to ask faculty members directly and see what they think? I'm guessing public universities will be hit harder.

To some extent we're lucky to have applied this year (and gotten offers).

[DRMF]

This is UChicago's all-campus email about the financial prospect of the university. https://coronavirusupdates.uchicago.edu/apr-7-email-update-2/

Slowed academic hiring and suspended staff hiring (with exceptions) - I think that'd imply that some postdocs would stay another year who'd otherwise have gotten faculty jobs, and that same PI/department may not have the funding to take a new student. Similarly, college/master's grads who'd planned to apply for "staff" jobs (e.g. research technician) now have fewer options and may apply for more grad schools. Also some departments' funding source depends heavily on tuition paid by international students, many of whom won't be able to enroll and thus won't pay tuition. This is not even accounting for everything else going on outside academia.

There was a post earlier (not necessarily in your field) where one of OP's offers *rescinded* the funding package, which is highly unusual and reflects how much funding strain that school is experiencing - you bet that program will admit fewer students next year.

I do think areas more related to the pandemic e.g. infectious disease/public health may see a different trend, but overall it's likely that acceptances will go down.

[mcoa1996]

I didn't apply to the US this year so, if your program is to be held there, I might not be the most relatable case here. I applied to 4 options, all in European universities, this year and I have been fortunate enough to have gotten into my first option fully funded. I applied to Sweden, Italy, England and a joint Erasmus program and with how covid has struck the region, I was surprised to receive acceptance letters and funding.

That being said, we're all working around covid and figuring things out as we go. To be honest, I was really scared through the entire waiting period between being accepted in the program and receiving the confirmation from the EU EACEA office that we would be receiving funds for the masters because, as stated before, deadlines have changed in matter of days, some people that applied to programs in other universities have received emails stating that their funding offers will be rescinded, and other horror stories. In the case of my masters, the day the confirmation came through I felt relieved because I had to not worry about the 2021 application season and the funding promised when we applied will remain as it is. Next year many programs will decrease their funding options for students, decrease their admission rate, or close some programs, all these things with the intention of being able to survive the crisis.

Even if this program is at the bottom of your list, there must be a reason you chose to apply there as there are so many PolSci programs out there and selecting 13 means you saw something special in each option. If the funding offer is good enough and you won't have to rely too heavily on loans, I would strongly suggest you accept the offer and go along. If, after a season there you still feel as you don't want to remain there, do consider transferring to other universities. However, as the world will have to brave a serious economical crisis brought by covid, next year admissions office will be even more picky about who they choose to allow into their programs and the funding offers to be given.