Fall 2022 Statistics PhD Profile Evaluation (School recs wanted)

[plshelpme]

Undergrad Institution: Top 10 Public University (USNews)
Major(s): Doubling in Statistics and Math
Minor(s):
GPA: 3.85

Type of Student: DWM

GRE General Test: From ETS Practice Test, Taking in August
Q: 166 
V: 161
W: N/A
 

 

Research Experience:  Did research in statistical theory (REU type program) this summer (2021), did not result in paper, but have a presentation on it and am continuing to work with my mentor, might result in a senior thesis. Did an internship with local community that taught middle schoolers to code robots for a competition, here I created some pre/post evaluation metrics to see if the program enhanced the kids' attitudes and self esteem, not really pure stats related.

 

Letters of Recommendation: Two letters from lecturer/professor of classes (one is a lecturer I took 3 stats theory classes with, the other is an assoc. prof. I took one theory class with and knows me), and one (hopefully really strong) letter from my research mentor (assistant professor at well known big public university, top 40 in stats) from this summer's program. 

 

Math/Statistics Grades:  A's in: Calc 1-3, Linear Algebra, DiffEq, Programming 1 (java), Probability Theory, Survival Analysis, Regression Analysis, Categorical Data Analysis, Design of Experiments. A- in Probability 2/Stochastics. B's in Sets and Logic (intro to proofs type class), Abstract Algebra, Stats Theory

In progress: Number Theory

Taking in Fall: Real analysis, nonparametric statistical methods, numerical analysis, others TBD

 

Teaching experience: TA'ing for Calc 1 in fall

 

Note: I only decided I wanted to pursue statistics at the beginning of my junior summer, so I was a tad limited on courses since I was halfway done, but I've been taking as many math and stat courses as I can to supplement.

Applying:

This is where I need help with. I have no idea how competitive I am, and I'm working to get my quant score up. Any feedback would be really appreciated. I'd pretty much like to go anywhere in the US but the far west, preferring the southeast, northeast, and midwest. I'd also be interested in biostats, but I'd prefer pure stats if I had the choice. Right now I'm looking at UF, FSU, UIUC, Yale, in that area of the USNews Rankings. UChicago is the highest reach on my list that I don't expect to get into but I'm fortunate enough to afford an application just to see. Should I stay around that tier, or increase or decrease? Any other suggestions? I am all ears (or eyes I suppose). Thank you so much for taking the time to read.

[bayessays]

I'd be somewhat surprised if you got rejected from UF/UIUC, and very surprised if you got rejected from FSU.  I think you could reasonably apply to any program besides Stanford, and I don't think you need to apply to any programs outside the top 50.

[Stat Assistant Professor]

Agreed with the above. I think the 'sweet spot' for the OP would probably be schools like UW-Madison, NCSU, and UMinnesota. I would target mainly schools in that general tier, and in addition, apply to a couple of schools ranked above that (e.g. it wouldn't be out of the question to try Duke, Michigan, or Carnegie Mellon) and a handful of schools  below that (e.g. in the UF/UIUC tier).

[plshelpme]

2 hours ago, Stat Assistant Professor said:

Agreed with the above. I think the 'sweet spot' for the OP would probably be schools like UW-Madison, NCSU, and UMinnesota. I would target mainly schools in that general tier, and in addition, apply to a couple of schools ranked above that (e.g. it wouldn't be out of the question to try Duke, Michigan, or Carnegie Mellon) and a handful of schools  below that (e.g. in the UF/UIUC tier).

Thank you very much for your recommendations; I greatly appreciate it. I'm very excited to hear I can shoot for those schools!

[plshelpme]

12 hours ago, bayessays said:

I'd be somewhat surprised if you got rejected from UF/UIUC, and very surprised if you got rejected from FSU.  I think you could reasonably apply to any program besides Stanford, and I don't think you need to apply to any programs outside the top 50.

Thank you for your advice!

[dontoverfit]

Just thought I would chime in here and say that I recommend applying to a wider range of schools than perhaps you might think based on the posts above. I go to a school in the range of Wisconsin, and I feel that a good number of the students have a bit stronger of math/research backgrounds (please don’t take this as a slight!). Obviously, the overall GPA is great and the school is good, but I think what could stand out to an admissions committee is the Bs in the 3 classes you’ve had so far that (assuming it is similar to other schools) are more proof/theory laden. Also, since you said a top 10 public school, I’m assuming it might be more likely UC San Diego than Berkeley, right? Obviously still a very solid school, but perhaps not carrying as much name recognition as the latter.

 

@bayessays and @Stat Assistant Professor have a ton of experience doing this, so I definitely don’t mean to ignore their advice. Just coming from someone at a school in the range they recommended and having a friend who perhaps overshot their chances at schools and didn’t get a single acceptance, I personally recommend adding some more safety schools or perhaps Biostatistics programs that are more forgiving of the Bs in the proof classes. I hope this helps!

 

 

[bayessays]

6 minutes ago, dontoverfit said:

Just thought I would chime in here and say that I recommend applying to a wider range of schools than perhaps you might think based on the posts above.

Great advice here.  Sometimes I realize I'm not specific enough in what I'm saying.  I don't think UF/UIUC are "safe" schools, and certainly don't think UW/NCSU are close to safeties for OP.  But I think some schools like FSU/Colorado State/Rice are pretty good bets, and OP should apply to more schools in that range as safer options, rather than going much further down in the rankings.  There's a pretty big drop-off in program quality after 50 (besides a few standouts like SC) in my opinion, so I think OP would be better served by sending out more applications within the top 50 than applying to programs outside the top 50.

I think the wildcard here is the research, which seems like it could be more substantial "real statistics" research that a lot of applicants don't get.  If this research+letter of rec is good, that could stand out even to top 10-15 programs.  But yes, apply as widely as your budget allows.

[plshelpme]

3 hours ago, dontoverfit said:

Just thought I would chime in here and say that I recommend applying to a wider range of schools than perhaps you might think based on the posts above. I go to a school in the range of Wisconsin, and I feel that a good number of the students have a bit stronger of math/research backgrounds (please don’t take this as a slight!). Obviously, the overall GPA is great and the school is good, but I think what could stand out to an admissions committee is the Bs in the 3 classes you’ve had so far that (assuming it is similar to other schools) are more proof/theory laden. Also, since you said a top 10 public school, I’m assuming it might be more likely UC San Diego than Berkeley, right? Obviously still a very solid school, but perhaps not carrying as much name recognition as the latter.

 

@bayessays and @Stat Assistant Professor have a ton of experience doing this, so I definitely don’t mean to ignore their advice. Just coming from someone at a school in the range they recommended and having a friend who perhaps overshot their chances at schools and didn’t get a single acceptance, I personally recommend adding some more safety schools or perhaps Biostatistics programs that are more forgiving of the Bs in the proof classes. I hope this helps!

 

 

No slight taken! I really appreciate the candidness. I want to aim where is most realistic. Do you think more math classes could strengthen the weak background you mention? Or is it too late, or do you mean mine is weaker because of the B's? I'm really sad about the one in stats theory especially, it was a 6 week course taught by a grad student in the middle of covid, so no one was prepared that well. Definitely a regret, but we live and we learn. I signed up for a second course in linear algebra since I really liked it, and I'm hoping that would look good? My top ten is actually UF, and I don't know how much that makes a difference, not really educated on their reputation too much. I will definitely take your advice and add more safety schools and look into more Biostats programs. Thank you so much for your help, and if you have any more time for more advice I'd GREATLY appreciate it!

[plshelpme]

2 hours ago, bayessays said:

Great advice here.  Sometimes I realize I'm not specific enough in what I'm saying.  I don't think UF/UIUC are "safe" schools, and certainly don't think UW/NCSU are close to safeties for OP.  But I think some schools like FSU/Colorado State/Rice are pretty good bets, and OP should apply to more schools in that range as safer options, rather than going much further down in the rankings.  There's a pretty big drop-off in program quality after 50 (besides a few standouts like SC) in my opinion, so I think OP would be better served by sending out more applications within the top 50 than applying to programs outside the top 50.

I think the wildcard here is the research, which seems like it could be more substantial "real statistics" research that a lot of applicants don't get.  If this research+letter of rec is good, that could stand out even to top 10-15 programs.  But yes, apply as widely as your budget allows.

What you're saying makes total sense. My list right now consists of 5 schools between ranks 16-31 (Columbia, UW Madison, NC State, Yale, Purdue), 5 below those, and 3 above those (Harvard/UChicago (for fun), and Duke), with only one being out of the top 50. I'm also going to look into more biostats programs as @dontoverfit suggested. Would you recommend I shift those ranks around to avoid overshooting? Thank you again.

[dontoverfit]

10 minutes ago, plshelpme said:

No slight taken! I really appreciate the candidness. I want to aim where is most realistic. Do you think more math classes could strengthen the weak background you mention? Or is it too late, or do you mean mine is weaker because of the B's? I'm really sad about the one in stats theory especially, it was a 6 week course taught by a grad student in the middle of covid, so no one was prepared that well. Definitely a regret, but we live and we learn. I signed up for a second course in linear algebra since I really liked it, and I'm hoping that would look good? My top ten is actually UF, and I don't know how much that makes a difference, not really educated on their reputation too much. I will definitely take your advice and add more safety schools and look into more Biostats programs. Thank you so much for your help, and if you have any more time for more advice I'd GREATLY appreciate it!

I think UF's reputation is plenty solid. And to be clear, I don't think your math background is weak so much as not showing a lot of evidence that you are ready for some of the more theoretical mathematical statistics or measure theoretic probability classes you might encounter first/second year in a statistics program. Because your applications will be due in the November-January range, submitting Fall 2021 grades (including real analysis) might not be feasible. However, if you take real analysis this fall and perhaps another proof-oriented course (a second linear algebra class, as you mentioned, is great on paper and honestly so helpful just for your own personal knowledge...highly recommend!) and get good grades in both (A- or better), you can always email the admissions committees with updated grades if you already submitted your application.

And yes, covid was a nightmare for some classes, and it sounds like you had that experience (I'm sorry about that). Perhaps one of your letter writers could put in a good word about your ability to handle/digest some statistical theory?

As I mentioned before, biostatistics programs tend to be a little more lenient about the depth of your math background than statistics programs, so if you have interests that overlap with what some biostatistics departments are doing, I would recommend it! My experience is that Washington Biostats would be too far of a reach (they tend to like more math-y applications), but other departments after that are worth applying to. I would say it is likely Harvard/JHU say no (but you still have a chance), and I think you have a very decent shot at UNC/Michigan/Berkeley/Penn/etc... One of the perks to applying to the biostat programs is that, if the research/culture fit is right, you can end up at a "higher ranked" school than the statistics options. Additionally, when the schools have both departments, it isn't unheard of having an advisor from the statistics department even if your program is biostatistics, although definitely reach out to current students if this is your plan. 

Hope this helps!

[plshelpme]

2 minutes ago, dontoverfit said:

I think UF's reputation is plenty solid. And to be clear, I don't think your math background is weak so much as not showing a lot of evidence that you are ready for some of the more theoretical mathematical statistics or measure theoretic probability classes you might encounter first/second year in a statistics program. Because your applications will be due in the November-January range, submitting Fall 2021 grades (including real analysis) might not be feasible. However, if you take real analysis this fall and perhaps another proof-oriented course (a second linear algebra class, as you mentioned, is great on paper and honestly so helpful just for your own personal knowledge...highly recommend!) and get good grades in both (A- or better), you can always email the admissions committees with updated grades if you already submitted your application.

And yes, covid was a nightmare for some classes, and it sounds like you had that experience (I'm sorry about that). Perhaps one of your letter writers could put in a good word about your ability to handle/digest some statistical theory?

As I mentioned before, biostatistics programs tend to be a little more lenient about the depth of your math background than statistics programs, so if you have interests that overlap with what some biostatistics departments are doing, I would recommend it! My experience is that Washington Biostats would be too far of a reach (they tend to like more math-y applications), but other departments after that are worth applying to. I would say it is likely Harvard/JHU say no (but you still have a chance), and I think you have a very decent shot at UNC/Michigan/Berkeley/Penn/etc... One of the perks to applying to the biostat programs is that, if the research/culture fit is right, you can end up at a "higher ranked" school than the statistics options. Additionally, when the schools have both departments, it isn't unheard of having an advisor from the statistics department even if your program is biostatistics, although definitely reach out to current students if this is your plan. 

Hope this helps!

This helps immensely, thank you! It's a really great idea to address that downfall with my letter writers; I think it's definitely feasible to ask one or multiple to discuss my ability to handle theory. I think due to my (hopefully, barring any mental/emotional turmoil lol) emotional capacity to handle rejection and my fortune in being able to apply to a wide range of schools, I'll apply to three highly ranked stats programs for fun and now from your suggestions some biostats ones as well, and maybe add some middle tier biostats programs too. I can't thank you enough!

[Stat Assistant Professor]

55 minutes ago, plshelpme said:

What you're saying makes total sense. My list right now consists of 5 schools between ranks 16-31 (Columbia, UW Madison, NC State, Yale, Purdue), 5 below those, and 3 above those (Harvard/UChicago (for fun), and Duke), with only one being out of the top 50. I'm also going to look into more biostats programs as @dontoverfit suggested. Would you recommend I shift those ranks around to avoid overshooting? Thank you again.

Oh, I didn't realize until now that one of your B's was in Stats Theory. That might give some adcoms some pause. I would think that a B in Abstract Algebra would be less frowned upon as it is not that relevant to Statistics (but that is me projecting), but a B in Statistical Theory might be somewhat concerning. On the other hand, if this was during the pandemic, the adcoms may be more forgiving.. you never know. I second @dontoverfit's advice to take two other proof-based classes (upper division proof-based linear algebra and real analysis). If you get A/A-'s in them, that will help your application a lot. 

I think Columbia, Yale, and Harvard may be far reaches for your profile. These are actually quite competitive to get into (as are all the Ivy League schools), plus they don't accept that many domestic applicants, and they seem to strongly prefer people with deep math backgrounds. I personally am not sure why Yale is ranked in the 30s in USNWR, since they have placed PhD graduates in TT positions at UPenn Wharton, Princeton OFRE, Columbia Stats, UChicago Stats, and just this past year, Cornell S&DS. These academic placements are outstanding. Instead of applying to all three of Columbia, Yale, and Harvard, I would recommend only applying to one of these three schools and substituting in Carnegie Mellon, University of Washiington, or University of Michigan for the other two. Then add a few more schools like Texas A&M, Iowa State, and maybe a few extra schools in the 40-50 range (like Colorado State, UConn, etc.), in addition to schools like UIUC, UF.

Edited July 12, 2021 by Stat Assistant Professor

[plshelpme]

2 minutes ago, Stat Assistant Professor said:

Oh, I didn't realize until now that one of your B's was in Stats Theory. That might give some adcoms some pause. I would think that a B in Abstract Algebra would be less frowned upon as it is not that relevant to Statistics (but that is me projecting), but a B in Statistical Theory might be somewhat concerning. On the other hand, if this was during the pandemic, the adcoms may be more forgiving.. you never know. I second @dontoverfit's advice to take two other proof-based classes (upper division proof-based linear algebra and real analysis). If you get A/A-'s in them, that will help your application a lot. 

I think Columbia, Yale, and Harvard may be far reaches for your profile. These are actually quite competitive to get into (as are all the Ivy League schools), plus they don't accept that many domestic applicants, and they seem to strongly prefer people with deep math backgrounds. I personally am not sure why Yale is ranked in the 30s in USNWR, since they have placed PhD graduates in TT positions at UPenn Wharton, Princeton OFRE, Columbia Stats, UChicago Stats, and just this past year, Cornell S&DS. These academic placements are outstanding. Instead of applying to all three of Columbia, Yale, and Harvard, I would recommend only applying to one of these three schools and substituting in Carnegie Mellon, University of Washiington, or University of Michigan for the other two. Then add a few more schools like Texas A&M, Iowa State, and maybe a few extra schools in the 40-50 range (like Colorado State, UConn, etc.), in addition to schools like UIUC, UF.

I'll be hoping for forgiveness then! I'll absolutely take those classes and prioritize them. Thank you very much for your advice, I'll definitely choose one of the ivies and hope for the best. I'll check out all the schools you mentioned, and again I am eternally grateful for your time and advice.

[bayessays]

1 hour ago, Stat Assistant Professor said:

(Columbia, UW Madison, NC State, Yale, Purdue),

As @Stat Assistant Professor alluded to, the biggest issue is that these schools aren't really much less competitive than Harvard/Chicago/Duke.  I'm just a sample of 1, but I was waitlisted at Chicago twice and rejected multiple times from Columbia, NCSU, Purdue, and Duke.  Schools like UIUC/UF/OSU/TAMU are definitely less competitive but very high-quality programs and I think that's a good range to focus on, with a few below and a few above.

[plshelpme]

@bayessays. @Stat Assistant Professor

 

Hello again! I’m wondering if you guys would be willing to give me advice again. 

 

I ended up taking real analysis I and II (B+ and A-), linear algebra for data science (A), statistical computing (A) and a baby python course (A). Though real analysis I only made it to a few of my apps, and real analysis II didn’t make it at all. I also ended with an A in number theory (which was proof based)

 

I was accepted into FSU (stats), UF (biostats, also offered an amazing scholarship), UIUC (stats), USF (stats), and denied from UF (stats, very surprising, home department :(), Northwestern (stats), and Uchicago (stats, wasn’t surprised at all, just applied for fun)

In the spring I also did an REU style program with NYU. I also was elected to Phi Beta Kappa  

I’ve decided to reapply, but am a little late in deciding. I’m assuming my application is slightly stronger with an A- in real analysis 2? I’m also switching one of my letters to my real analysis professors, and he said he can speak to my improvement in the course and my comfort level with abstraction.

 

In this gap year I’ve been teaching AP statistics at a high school. 

 

Could you guys give me some school recs? I’m looking to stay in the southeast, but mainly NC. Which makes this hard because every school in NC seems to be extremely competitive. I don’t mind biostats programs. 

 

Thanks for your help!

[bayessays]

Your best bets in NC are probably applying to biostat at Duke.  Followed by UNC stat/biostats.  NCSU and Duke stats will probably be the harder ones.  If you're really wanting to stay in NC, I think UNC - Charlotte or Greensboro have lower ranked PhD programs too.

SC has UofSC stats and MUSC biostat.

Georgia has UGA stats, which I don't hear much about, and Emory biostat.

You got Florida covered from last year's schools.