Recession and Grad. School Acceptance

[zigazowohnow]

So I've been hearing from multiple places that the "recession" is having an impact on the number of graduate students a University may accept this year. It seems as though everyone is worried about what there financial status will be ten years from now and would not want to accept students that they could not afford. Therefore, they are accepting less than they do in other years.

Do you think this is true?

I know for the program that I am wait listed on they can accept up to 7 students but this year 7 of us interviewed and they ended up needing a wait list. No one has said why but I'm thinking that it is the financial crisis because their policy is to only accept the # of students they can fully fund throughout their years. So maybe that's why so few this year?

Darn people and buying homes they can't afford! Who would have thought this could affect whether I get a PhD???

[Cornell07]

*sigh*

[zigazowohnow]

On top of that someone on livejournal says that when there is a pending recession more people want to continue their education....so applications go up, and the number of students a school can accept go down

(Yea I'm caffeinated now...Caramel Macchaito all the way baby!)

[DUguy333]

Nearly every one of my advisors said this would be a particularly rough year to apply to graduate school due to the recession fears. Some even encouraged me to wait a year. Apparently, when the economy tanks, many people think going back to school is ideal...

[4givn1]

Not only are there recession problems, a lot of the money that is there (and more) is being designated for defense and the military rather than for research and the universities. Since the money and jobs are also going overseas, and people can't get jobs in their current fields so they try going back to school. And I doubt things will get better in just a year.

[zigazowohnow]

Well we are trying to get into grad school to learn...but maybe by not getting in we're learning....macroeconomics.

[snagsby52]

On top of that someone on livejournal says that when there is a pending recession more people want to continue their education....so applications go up, and the number of students a school can accept go down

I have heard this as well (from several professors), and I think it is very, very true. :roll:

[miketakena]

I have heard this as well (from several professors), and I think it is very, very true. :roll:

I think its not so bad for Fall 08 admission since the economic fallout precipitated rapidly only in early jan 08... Fall 09 admission would be difficult..

[snagsby52]

I think the economy has been on a downward turn for awhile now; but yes, I am sure that next year could be even worse. :shock:

[zigazowohnow]

I think its not so bad for Fall 08 admission since the economic fallout precipitated rapidly only in early jan 08

I disagree, it seems that most people involved in finance acknowledge that the subprime mess really began to take a toll last summer. Wall Street was aware that the summer was the start and no one knew how long it would last or when it would end. It is only since January that the general public became deeply concerned about the status of our economy. When you reach that point your nearly half way through the turmoil.

Therefore, I think when programs were notified of funding by their finance people this fall, they're allotment would have been based on the status of the economy which has been shaky since last summer.

Full disclosure: I am an avid watcher of CNBC and Bloomberg Television.

[miketakena]

I disagree, it seems that most people involved in finance acknowledge that the subprime mess really began to take a toll last summer. Wall Street was aware that the summer was the start and no one knew how long it would last or when it would end. It is only since January that the general public became deeply concerned about the status of our economy. When you reach that point your nearly half way through the turmoil.

Therefore, I think when programs were notified of funding by their finance people this fall, they're allotment would have been based on the status of the economy which has been shaky since last summer.

Full disclosure: I am an avid watcher of CNBC and Bloomberg Television.

Yeah... funding would be less... but it could have yet cause a tsunami wave of applications (as you mentioned - the public picked it up only in Jan 08).... stagflation might be installed for next year perhaps (higher volumes of application and lower voumes of funding) .. but signs of it might have already appeared in this year's admission (my conjecture)

[firecolon]

I think there will be a spike in applications for about 6-8 more years because the birth rate peaked at around 1990 (echo boomers). This people are just now approaching college age. I think the economy has little to do with it, but the troops that are finishing in Iraq are coming back and many will consider graduate school. I think the Class of 2008 was relatively light, at least in my field of mathematics.

I feel bad for those applying to graduate school in about 3-4 years from now, especially in English or Psychology where acceptance rates are lowest.

At least there will be a good job market for all of us by the time we're finished with graduate school. For example, a large number of college professors are in the 55-70 age group so there will be a lot of retirees in academia. The same goes for industry, where there are also a lot of potential retirees.

[Minnesotan]

I find it difficult to blame the U.S. economy alone, when Canadian schools are reporting similar growth in domestic grad school applications. I think there has to be a deeper issue, or more variables than have been brought up thus far.

Do any students in the U.K. or on the Continent know what the picture is like over there? This information could tell us more.

[prat]

Darn people and buying homes they can't afford! Who would have thought this could affect whether I get a PhD???

I heard that its really because Bush poured millions into the Iraq war. War costs a lot, you know.

[NO8DO]

Minnesotan - I think the problem on the continent (at least in Spain and France, and I'm sure Italy is no different), is almost worse. A lot of people end up with humanities degrees over there but then can't do anything with it because a) at least in the case of Spain (not sure about the others), profs are technically employed by the state and they hold their jobs for a very long time (since there is little encouraging them to quit/retire, even if their performance is suffering) unemployment is even a bigger issue there. Here at least we can attempt to get a job at a bookstore or starbucks until we can get a more respectable job where we use our degree, over in Europe you'll see a lot of 30- or even 40-somethings working in places like this, leaving very very few spots for people in their 20s. These are of course my observations from when I lived over there so I could definitely be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that economic woes are affecting everyone - not just Americans/Canadians - even if European currencies have hit all-time highs over the dollar.

[Psych_maj]

These are really sad times indeed. What I mean by that is in the terms of peoples wants for gaining knowledge and furthering themselves for the betterment of society, and humanity. It will be very sad when those with deep passion in a field are not able to continue on (which happens plenty enough now).

I think everyone is gravely underestimating the financial crisis that is, and will be. I will be one of those unlucky ones apply to grad school in the next 2 to 3 years, and to be honest, I am very worried about future prospects.

I foresee a lot of people flooding back into school. First reason: People that have had job loss will want to a)either upgrade their current education to land a job or b)pick a new field of work and thus will need to learn material for their new career path. This will lead to a huge increase in applicants, not only to grad schools but undergrad as well (since I bet people will opt to do second undergrad degrees in their new career choice) ... this will trickle down and affect students finishing high school. This will then lead to those not accepted to go after jobs, but will find out getting hired with just a high school diploma, and no experience, will not get them jobs so they will keep applying to schools (thus keep increasing the applicant pool as each year goes by). Jobs that would have went to basically high school grads, and summer student workers wont be available because older applicants with more experience will fill those positions because they either need any money to support families or debt (and they will probably work 2 or 3 jobs to make ends meet).

Second reason: Many will try to "ride out" the financial crisis. Many will perceive the financial crisis as a short-term problem, so school (and things like student loans, lines of credit) will seem like an attractive way to offset complete bankruptcy and unemployment, again to make ends meet and support family or debt. They will be willing to do this because they will see it as short-term and although they will come out with more debt, they will feel that it will open up new job prospects and they will thus perceive themselves as "riding out" the problem of losing everything they have.

But the next 5 to 10 years will be very uncertain. Those in good positions (or even mediocre ones), that dont end up losing their jobs, will hold on to them as long as they can. Hell, even those in crappy positions will do anything to keep them, because like I said, any income will be better than none. Many wont retire because they know their social security payments (or retirement savings, and packages) will not be enough to make ends meet. And those that do retire will end up coming back into the workforce to pay bills and things they need (just look at all the seniors working in places like Wal-Mart).

Those that finish grad school will have better chances than others, but many will find it difficult since those they should be replacing will hold on to their positions like grim-death.

[UndraftedFreeAgent]

As an economist working in industry, it's my impression that funding will be the worst this year, but the real surge in applications in most fields will come next year. Since mass layoffs didn't really start jumping until late in the Fall of last year, many potential applicants wouldn't have had time to put together an application, especially while worrying about putting food on the table. Also, the first people to lose jobs are the less-skilled, less-educated, employees who would be relatively easy to replace once a recovery begins. Those with the best potential for grad school are those with more advanced skill sets, who usually aren't laid off until the company has no other choice. Such potential applicants most certainly missed the application deadlines for Fall 2008.

I'm willing to bet that many schools (especially state schools and those with smaller endowments) ended up accepting fewer students this year than normal, or atleast offered fewer funded positions. Those in the best position to fund students are the perennially rich schools and those who fund their grad students through TV deals for their sports programs.

That said, I really don't see the recession causing that big a problem beyond applications for the Fall 2009 cohort. By then there will be other issues none of us could have foreseen here. (Glimpse of the future: war with Iran? war with Venezuala? actually doing something about social security/healthcare? return of Barny the Dinosaur? baby boomers all decide to get PhDs? tenured professors discover fountain of youth and never retire.)

(Please excuse any spelling errors or organizational problems, as I'm writing this before heading off to a meeting and don't have time to edit myself)

[zigazowohnow]

I saw on the news last night that because of the recession and states portfolios decreasing rapidly construction projects have been halted mid-stage and cutbacks have been made all around. I can't help but to assume that some of these cutbacks would be effecting Public Universities funding of PhD programs as well, while the states look for ways to trim the fat. :|

[Antigone]

I heard that its really because Bush poured millions into the Iraq war. War costs a lot, you know.

Yes war costs a lot (billions actually) but defense costs are paid through national debt, not through the rest of the federal budget that goes in to all of the agencies, departments and programs that we all think about when we think about government funding. It's not like it's coming out of the same proverbial bank account.

Anyway, the "real" costs lie in lost labor, veterans' benefits and other related physical and human resource drainage. It is what it is, like any extended military engagement.

[Minnesotan]

Yes war costs a lot (billions actually) but defense costs are paid through national debt, not through the rest of the federal budget that goes in to all of the agencies, departments and programs that we all think about when we think about government funding. It's not like it's coming out of the same proverbial bank account.

Anyway, the "real" costs lie in lost labor, veterans' benefits and other related physical and human resource drainage. It is what it is, like any extended military engagement.

And we'll go ahead and keep value judgments about foreign policy, as well as political statements about our world leaders, out of this discussion, please and thank you. I've seen where comments like Prat's go when not nipped in the bud around here.

If you want to discuss politics, The Lobby is the place for (polite) argument.

[UndraftedFreeAgent]

I saw on the news last night that because of the recession and states portfolios decreasing rapidly construction projects have been halted mid-stage and cutbacks have been made all around. I can't help but to assume that some of these cutbacks would be effecting Public Universities funding of PhD programs as well, while the states look for ways to trim the fat. :|

Absolutely. Penn State's preferred loan agency announced a few weeks ago that they wouldn't be making any new loans. While they're working out a deal with another agency, that's approximately 30,000 students who would be completely without aid.

I also read on this board that BU Poli Sci PhD is offering admission to something like 30-35 students, but only funding 2 or 3. I can't imagine that, during normal times, they would be that stingy. I'm willing to bet that their yield is going to be really low this year.

[emusinfrance]

Education Department Issues Lender-of-Last-Resort Guidelines as More Banks Quit Federal Program

http://chronicle.com/daily/2008/03/2292n.htm