Recommendations for US stats PhD programmes

[MidnightMoon]

Hello, I'm currently a UK student in a 4 year integrated master's degree, about to enter my final year, and starting to consider applications to the US for a stats PhD starting on 2025 autumn. I'm not sure how my profile is, and where I should be aiming at, so I'd really appreciate suggestions. I'm interested in robust statistical ML and Bayesian non-parametric techniques.

Undergrad & Master's - Mathematics at Oxford University 

GPA: 85% (converts to a 4.00 US equivalent apparently)

Award for exam performance in first year.

Courses: Besides the standard first and second year courses, the options I chose in my third year were: 

Probability Measure and Martingale, Functional Analysis I, Functional Analysis II, Optimisation for Data Science, Continuous Martingales and Stochastic Calculus, Applied Probability, Foundations of Statistical Inference, Statistical Machine Learning

 

I got 80+ on all of these, except for functional analysis ii which was 64 (so everything should be equivalent to A and only one on B).

For my final year I'll be doing:

Continuous Optimisation, Theories of Deep Learning, Advanced Statistical Learning, Numerical Linear Algebra, Uncertainty in DL, Computational Learning Theory, Graphical Models, Random Matrix Theory 

Research: I'm currently doing a research project in numerical techniques to solve SDEs over summer which is going well. Previously, I'd worked on a professor on a stochastic analysis project last summer, and one on Bayesian modelling of perception before that. Unfortunately, none of these resulted in a publication, and my work on the Bayesian project in particular wasn't very good (got little supervision and had little knowledge at the time).

 

Letters: I think I'll get a strong one from the professor I worked on stochastic analysis with, and from my supervisor on my current project. I'll also try and ask my master's thesis advisor next semester for a good letter.

 

I'm a little worried that the top US schools would value substantial research projects and experience over good exam grades, so I'm really unsure about where I should be aiming at. I'd appreciate feedback and suggestions. I'm thinking about applying to 10 programmes in the US and 5-6 in the UK. Not sure if I should consider applying to more than these.