2025 PhD Stats/OR application, need to find safety schools

[probphyCScombi]

I'm looking for an honest assessment of my chances of being admitted to some PhD programs and recommendations for discrete mathematics heavy (algorithms, quantum computing, combinatorial optimization, probability) programs or universities

Undergrad Institution: BSc from a good college, M.Stat ISI
Major(s): Statistics
GPA: 8.2/10 in undergrad, 6.4/10 in ISI (1st year)

Type of Student: International female

GRE General Test:
Q: 162 (65%)
V: 155 (60%)
W: 3.5 (41%)
I messed up the quant section but again very few places I will apply to require GRE
GRE Subject Test in Mathematics: not taking
 

Programs Applying: PhD in Statistics and IEOR

 

Research Experience:

• 6 group projects as a part of coursework in the 1st year (KNN, Kernel density estimation, bootstrap and jackknife techniques, traveling saleman problem- approximation algorithms, 2 data analysis projects)
• Summer project on reversible mcmc algorithms
  • Ongoing 
• Summer project on phase transition of self-avoiding walks
  • Gave presentation to the entire department as a part of the summer fellowship programme
• Semester-long project dissertation on self-avoiding walks
  • Gave presentation 

Awards/Honors/Recognitions: Received merit-based scholarship for 5 years from the govt., received scholarship from college during B.Sc. for academic performance
Pertinent Activities or Jobs: TA for 2 summer schools, organized a competition for undergrads

Letters of Recommendation:

1. Anticipating a strong letter from the probability professor who I studied self-avoiding walks
2. Anticipating a little less strong letter from statistics professor who I'm studying mcmc algorithms.
3. Another professor from ISI

Math/Statistics Grades:  
Mathematical Analysis, C programming, Dissertation (O (outstanding)) Econometrics, Multivariate Analysis & non-parametric methods, Design of Experiments, Stochastic Processes & time series, Large Sample Theory, Statistical Quality Control, Computer Networks and internet technologies, Survey Sampling, Algebra, Prob and prob distributions 1 & 2 (A+ in all), Categorical Data Analysis, Stat inf 1 & 2 (A in all)

At ISI my grades were quite low: Analysis I (C+) Regression Techniques (B) Statistical Inference I (C+) Linear Algebra and Linear Models (O) Probability Theory (A) Large Sample Statistical Methods (A) Multivariate Analysis (B) Nonparametric and Sequential Methods (B+) Measure Theoretic Probability (B+) Analysis II (B+)

Any Miscellaneous Points that Might Help: 

Applying to Where:  

• PHD programs (stat): UNC, Purdue, Northwestern, Michigan State, Warwick University, University of Toronto, UCSB
• Cornell OR, Purdue OR, Georgia Tech ACO
  Should I try for U Wash Seattle or U Columbia? The profs who are going to write letters for me have asked me to apply there but I'm not very confident