PhD Application Evaluation

[DorkRawk]

Ok, so I'm looking to apply to a CS PhD program studying AI focused in cognitive modeling, perhaps with a secondary interest in evolutionary computing related to machine learning. I come from a bit of a random, wandering background and I'm fighting a poor undergrad GPA.

Undergrad GPA (Math/Computer Science major): 2.3 (from a top 5 CS school)

Masters GPA (Human Computer Interaction): 3.97

GRE: 730 Q / 560 V

1 paper (related to HCI) published in a smaller conference (4th author)

1 paper (related to evolutionary computing) published in a student research symposium (sole author)

other random research experience to talk about in my SOP

I am about to start a job as a programmer/lab manager/researcher at a Cog Sci lab at UC Berkeley. This should result in good research experience, maybe publications and hopefully some good LORs from a well known prof or 2. I took the job in a Cog Sci lab because it will be tangentially related to the area of AI I'm interested in and I wanted more research experience.

So what are my chances?

I'm looking at UC Berkeley (a long shot, I know, but I live here and might have some people to help me out internally), UT Austin, Northwestern, UC San Diego, USC, UCLA, U of CO. Any other recommendations or a good idea of the ranking range I should focus on?