Worth taking guaranteed Mphil spot versus waiting on PhD applications?

[JCoe Wants to Go to School]

Hi everyone,

I just received a guaranteed Mphil 2 year position with funding at the university of hong kong in comp. Lit that will begin in January 2012. It was a surprise opening, and the application process went through in a matter of a week. Originally I was planning on applying to PhD programs in Film Studies that would begin in Fall 2012, and I applied to the Mphil spot because I thought it would be a good backup.

Unfortunately I just received an email from my advisor who explained that funding is tight and if I don't accept the position and commit to two years beginning January 2012 they will either give the spot to someone else or the funding will be sent to another department because they really need TAs right now and through 2013.

I think that my chances of getting into a strong PhD program are just the same as any other strongly qualified candidate: depends on funding, department openings, and my research topic. So it's sort of a coin flip as there are no guarantees.

So, what should I do? The MPhil is guaranteed... But then I am committing two years to a degree that while funded (and essentially is a job) could be redundant if I eventually do end up gaining acceptance to a top tier film studies program in the US. However, it could bolster my credentials and give me opportunities to get published and attend conferences in my field on the school's dime, which would make me a better candidate for PhD programs.

I think life decisions also matter too. I am now 27, and turning 28 next year. I took 5 years off of school to work in the private sector while living abroad. I also am concurrently enrolled in an MA program. I intended on returning to the US to get my PhD and then hoped to actually have a stable career by the time I was 35.

Thanks so much for your advice.