Profile Evaluation Econ PhD

[growtheorist]

So I'm almost coming to the end of the tedious application process, and the (normal?) anxiety about not getting into a good program is getting to me a bit. The BIG problem (and I realize it's big) with my application is my GPA, which is 3.2 right now, and will probably jump to 3.3 by the end of this sem. Thing is, I had one really bad semester that ruined my GPA, which was partly because I was switching focus from physics to economics as my major.

Right now, I'm going to graduate in May with physics and economics as my majors, and a math minor as well. I'm also in the honors program at my school and am a candidate for econ honors here as well, where the economics dept is top 15 in the US. I've taken the usual math courses, am in real analysis right now, and also in grad level econometrics.

The biggest plus of my application is my involvement in research both on and off campus. I did fieldwork and analysis in Indian agriculture last summer, and then wrote a "proper" research paper for an econ class on the impact of introducing a new technology in agriculture. I also worked as an RA this summer working on income inequality and right now am writing a senior thesis on another project. So through my research I have two excellent recommendations from faculty who have chaired our dept in the past and are pretty well known in the field. I've done research under both. My third recommendation is also very good, if not excellent.

My GRE scores read 167 in math, 163 in reading, and 5 in writing.

I'm applying to 10-25 ranked departments, and threw in a couple of depts ranked in the 30's (like Virginia, North Carolina, U Washington). Didn't bother with the really top programs since my GPA isn't good enough. But do my chances for tier 2 schools look positive?