Am I competitive for these PhD programs?

[db757]

I am a senior history major at Northern Arizona University who is graduating in December, currently applying to various Japanese history masters and doctoral programs on the west coast. My GPA is 3.62; I am taking the GRE on the 18th. My letters of recommendation from two of my history professors should be solid, although I am worried about the other one which is being written by a philosophy adjunct.

Anyway, the schools I am applying to are:

University of Washington, the UC campuses in Irvine, San Diego, Davis, and Santa Barbara, Cal States San Diego, San Francisco, Fullerton, and possibly Fresno. I am also considering the University of Wisconsin in Madison and Florida State.

I claim a very high level of Japanese reading and writing (I can read newspapers,popular fiction, and pre-war materials without needing a dictionary), although my speaking needs work.

[kyjin]

Are you interested in Premodern or Modern Japanese history? I can recommend a few on the Premodern side. That said, I would recommend looking at East Asian Studies Masters programs as well; you may have high Japanese reading schools, but those programs may help you work on your speaking skills. (As well as Classical and/or Kambun if you're doing Premodern, or beginning Chinese or Korean if you're doing modern.) You also may want to take a look at IUC (the Inter-University Center for Japanese Language Studies) as an alternative if you don't get into a grad program next year. 

[db757]

Are you interested in Premodern or Modern Japanese history? I can recommend a few on the Premodern side. That said, I would recommend looking at East Asian Studies Masters programs as well; you may have high Japanese reading schools, but those programs may help you work on your speaking skills. (As well as Classical and/or Kambun if you're doing Premodern, or beginning Chinese or Korean if you're doing modern.) You also may want to take a look at IUC (the Inter-University Center for Japanese Language Studies) as an alternative if you don't get into a grad program next year. 

I'm sorry, I should have stated my interests. 

My true passion is the role the Japanese economic bubble played and continues to play in the Japan of today, on which I feel that there is a lack of scholarship.  Beyond that, I am interested in my ability to participate in researching the modern and contemporary history of Japan, especially during the bubble period and the subsequent "lost decade" of the nineties. 

[db757]

Just got my GRE scores: 155 verbal, 150 quantitative, and only a 4.0 analytical writing. Does this end my chances of getting into a top program for history or East Asian Studies?

[dr. t]

So I've been meaning to say something about this for a while, because we have a lot of this type of question - here's my numbers, here's where I'm going, what're my chances.

 

We can't tell you what your chances are with this information. The quantifiables may keep you out if they're terrible (yours are not), but they are not what will get you in. Your knowledge, your particular interests, and your ability to articulate these clearly and concisely in your statement and writing sample - things we will never see and cannot judge - are the deciding factors. The best we can tell you is what any department's website will tell you: your numbers are OK but not great, and that most good programs take about 5-10% of their applicant pool.