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NSF Fellowship 2007


Othello

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If you look at the NSF Fellowship thread from 2006, it's fairly clear that the percentile ranges don't alone determine winning vs. HM vs. rejection. Top 7% seemed to be a universal win, but, perhaps depending on research area, it seems 79-93% can either be HM or a win, and the range below that can either be HM or nothing. Some subspecialties appear to have more awards allocated to them than others.

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Right, those percentiles are of all applicants, not of a particular discipline. Apparently the number of awards per discipline is a function of the number of applicants to that area, which means that there's no way to game the system by choosing an obscure field.

If you look at the NSF Fellowship thread from 2006, it's fairly clear that the percentile ranges don't alone determine winning vs. HM vs. rejection. Top 7% seemed to be a universal win, but, perhaps depending on research area, it seems 79-93% can either be HM or a win, and the range below that can either be HM or nothing. Some subspecialties appear to have more awards allocated to them than others.
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"Apparently the number of awards per discipline is a function of the number of applicants to that area"

It's a function of more than that; I don't think the number of students interested in "CS - Theoretical Foundations" has decreased by 65% compared to 5 years ago. The number of awards to CS in general seems to be decreasing over the years. The NSF most likely prioritizes its money by research area, with the fields it considers higher priority getting higher budgets.

Furthermore, I don't see how it can make sense that the percentiles compare you with all applicants. There are different panels that each evaluate the different research areas. How could they compare the rankings of some physics panel with that of some biomedical engineering panel? Any attempt to do so seems artificial.

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You're right: the set of all students, ranked by panels., is a partial ordering. Maybe their email about ranking is sloppy and they really should say "ranking within the panel"?

Furthermore, I don't see how it can make sense that the percentiles compare you with all applicants. There are different panels that each evaluate the different research areas. How could they compare the rankings of some physics panel with that of some biomedical engineering panel? Any attempt to do so seems artificial.
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