Interview & visit paradox

[Hal Leuco]

So, here's what happened to me...

I have been interviewed through skype by my Professor of Interest. After some time, he invited me to campus visit. Went to this visit, talked to other faculty, got a tour on campus. Everything looks nice.

A professor from this department (though not the one I was applying to) & another graduate student  informally told me (independently from each other), that if I got a campus visit invitation and came here, I am pretty much in. However, my POI says that he's still thinking - he got two positions open and three people in consideration, but only two students (me and another girl from NY) showed . What do you think are my chances? How to interpret this paradox? 

Edited February 7, 2016 by Hal Leuco

[Eigen]

I'm not sure why you're calling this a paradox. 

There are two positions open and three people in consideration, the professor has told you he's still considering. 

[Hal Leuco]

4 minutes ago, Eigen said:

I'm not sure why you're calling this a paradox. 

There are two positions open and three people in consideration, the professor has told you he's still considering. 

The "paradox" (jokingly) here is  between what the POI tells me and what other people did. I know, of course, that all they say is unofficial and the final decision is on professor, but I wonder what people from grad cafe, based on their experience, think of that.

[Eigen]

They all said pretty much the same thing. 

The other people told you that usually anyone invited for a visit is accepted. 

The PI told you you're one of three people he's considering for a spot. 

There's no real difference between those two statements. 

No one else in the department can know how the professor will decide. You've been told directly by the professor what your chances are. No one here can shed any more light on it then that.

[Hal Leuco]

9 hours ago, Eigen said:

They all said pretty much the same thing. 

The other people told you that usually anyone invited for a visit is accepted. 

The PI told you you're one of three people he's considering for a spot. 

There's no real difference between those two statements. 

No one else in the department can know how the professor will decide. You've been told directly by the professor what your chances are. No one here can shed any more light on it then that.

Thank you !

[quanto]

Did he say he was "still thinking" before or after one of the three of you didn't show up for the visit? If he said that before the other person no-showed, that'd probably help him make his decision.

[ersmith073]

Also keep in mind that he may admit 3 knowing that only 1 or 2 will accept! I think this is a good sign

Edited February 18, 2016 by ersmith073