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Stat PhD Fall 2018 application - Advice on choosing schools

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Hello all!  This is my first time posting so let me know if I did anything incorrectly or if I'm posting in the wrong place :)
Undergrad Institution: Big public state school, top 70 national, top 25 public
Major(s): Statistics and Mathematics
Minor(s): Computer Science
GPA: 3.6
Type of Student: domestic (permanent resident, applying for citizenship), female, white
Coursework: All the required coursework for the math/stat major (lin alg, real analysis, theory or prob/stat, stochastic process, sampling, regression, experiment design, quality control, and of course ALL the calc, you can never have enough calc),  I'm also have two phd level stat grad classes coming up next year as well as advanced linear algebra and real analysis 2.  The CS minor also includes 6 CS classes (I also have work experience as a developer).

GRE General Test: 
 170 (97%)
V: 163 (92%)
W: 5.0 (93%)
GRE Subject Test in Mathematics:
Taking it this September

Programs Applying: Statistics PhD

Research Experience:  Currently working on a research project with the graduate director of the statistics department at my undergraduate university
Awards/Honors/Recognitions: College Honors Program, Presidential Scholarship
Pertinent Activities or Jobs: Software developer at IEEE, working on some demographic analytics projects 
Letters of Recommendation: one from a professor I had several classes with, A's in all of them and I went to pretty much all her office hours so (I think) we have a solid relationship.  One from my boss at work since I'm doing some relevant work and he is really excited about my progress and learning ability.  I still need to figure out my third rec.  Honestly I didn't know I wanted to pursue grad school until my junior year so I didn't get as involved as I should have in my first few years and that's why I don't have my recs in order yet.

Applying to Where: 
You tell me!  I'm hoping to apply to some top schools and some safeties.  Hard to narrow it down from there since I'm not really sure where I stand.  I think my numbers are ok but I don't know how good my recs will be and I don't have much any research experience so I don't know how that balances.
Thank you for any advice you can give!  I would love to hear what you think about the how competitive my app is so far and what schools you would recommend I apply to.
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I had a pretty rough freshman year because I was pursuing a different major at that time before I realized how much I liked statistics and math, so I got a C+ in multivariable calc.  I took ap calc ab and bc in high school so those were not taken in college.  Other than that,

  • linear algebra - A,
  • intro to reasoning (kind of a pre-real analysis class, not sure if that's common or not) - A,
  • diff eq - A,
  • math theory of prob - B,
  • math theory of stat - A, 
  • real analysis - B+.
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I think you should be looking at NC State and some other schools in the 15-30 range (lower for safeties). And if the adv math classes / gre subject go well, apply to top schools too.

Also, I'm assuming you've talked to your research mentor about this? I'd trust whatever he says over anyone on this board.

Edited by edward130603
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