Choosing Master Research Supervisor

[statfan]

I am doing statistics master in Canada now with the goal of applying to phd later. I am mainly interested in probability, and there are several professors that I can work with. I'd like to hear your thoughts on choosing my supervisor.

One of them is a full professor with phd from western university. He is currently holding some positions (chairs or something), and also serves as an editor for a queueing theory journal. However, he may not have a strong tie to the schools in the States.

Another is an assistant professor who just graduated a few years ago from a top 15 phd in the states. He is an incredibly smart guy with research on theoretical probability, and I am sure that he will yield high-quality research in the future. The problem with him is that he is so young that he may not be well-known both in Canada and the States. He may have connection with US faculty though.

In terms of my chance of getting into top phd in the States, how would you weight the pros and cons? Whose letter do you think will take on more weight, assuming I produce similar research with both.

Edited October 4, 2017 by statfan