bookinsomnia

I'm sure your grandfather would be so proud!
Yeah, every time I apply for something and say "I probably won't get it" my parents just say "you say that about a lot of things that you get!" Like, NO MOM. NINE HUNDRED PEOPLE APPLIED TO THIS GRADUATE PROGRAM. THEY PICK 20. 

I don't think anyone is arguing against you, but there are lots of reasons why people don't get TT jobs. If you aren't willing to go wherever those postdocs and 1-year visiting appointments are located for the first decade or more after you get the PhD, and instead settle for an adjunct job or drop out of academia entirely, the chance you'll ever land a TT job drops exponentially. Some people decide adjuncting is the best thing for them. I had a brilliant professor who got her PhD from an elite school and she chose to adjunct because of her family circumstances. In a decent world, she'd be teaching at an R1 and training grad students. In her world, that didn't make sense.
Obviously it IS an uphill battle, and anyone going into this should know that. Choose a program that has good placement, funds for research, etc. Make sure you network, apply for fellowships and grants, and bust your ass on the dissertation. Write something that has meaning, not just something that fills a gap. Volunteer, teach, do stuff to make your life fulfilling. Realize that the PhD is one moment in your life, and you may not (and likely won't) get all you want from it. Obviously I'm just a lowly 1st year, but I'm not going to pretend I don't know anything. I managed to get through undergrad and a MA (where I killed it, if you don't mind me bragging) as a single mom. Others may have the dream of a TT and will die without it, but most of us are practical adults who know stuff doesn't work out. I'll happily teach at a secondary school or go work at a coffee shop for the rest of my life as long as I show my daughter I tried to follow my dream, and I accomplished a huge milestone on that journey. Besides, I have a guaranteed income for 5-6 years and I get to do what I love. That's freaking sweet. Even when I worked in accounting I didn't have that security, and I certainly didn't have insurance.
Someone has to fill the positions that open up. It may, or (statistically) won't, be us. Knowledge about how dire the situation is--great. We are all armed with the same information, the statistics, the well-meant warnings from professors and also the snarky and bitter warnings from many others. But we are all very different humans with different experiences and lives and very different reasons for doing what we're doing. I won't tell anyone not to get a PhD just because of the job market. From my own experience, I know there are so many factors involved in the decision and it is not my place to project my reasons on others.

Hi, I am a long time lurker. I got the call yesterday from the Director of Graduate Studies at University of Washington saying I was accepted. I am a little embarrassed about how inarticulate I was on the phone, but she was really nice about it and assured me she remembered what her first acceptance felt like.