Ah, this thread clears up a lot. I got an email from Indiana's HPS department that was very positive but disconcertingly ambiguous. When I showed the message to my letter-writers, they all interpreted it as saying I was accepted, but on a waiting list for a fellowship.
The DGS didn't clarify when I responded, though I didn't push on the matter, since she said she'd be sending more info. I heard from her on the 2nd, so I guess I can infer from the information here that it wasn't an acceptance. What a letdown.