I think most programs outside the top ten get somewhere around 100-300 applications for, usually, just 20-30 spots. I think Columbia gets around 1,000 applications for around 30 spots, but that's their entire visual arts program, so they only want a few painters, a few photographers, sculptors, etc. So for that program I think your odds are something like 1 in 200 but I could be wrong. SAIC's painting department got 500 applications from which they gave 100 interviews and from there 25 students will be accepted.
I'm not sure what the general acceptance rate for MFA programs is... But I'm going to say: bad