Hi all - Thesis/capstone procrastination got me here. Last year, this time, I was in the same boat as you. Its no fun and there are indeed many factors at play but the best choice will present itself, hang in there for few more weeks.
Re: HKS waitlist: I remained on the waitlist till early July until a final notice of closing was sent out by HKS. The email said that no one was accepted off the waitlist. However, there were 1-2 MC/MPAs here on the forum who had declined the offer, so not sure how the calculus of that change worked out with the admissions.
I am currently attending the Fletcher School/MA, happy to share my experiences. Feel free to message. Good luck!