Has anybody heard anything from Duke Stats Phd? They have consistently sent out acceptances Jan 28-31 in the last four years. Curious if anyone has had any communication/interview/inside knowledge about when results may show up?
Where are the functional data analysts when you need them?!
My guess is that most variance is explained by recommendation letters. Other criteria like GPA, GRE scores, and statements of purpose seem to typically be used as binary predictors, i.e. some weight is given to an application if the general GRE Q score is above 165, but if it's lower, then there's a weight penalty. Maybe the form of our relationship is something like
P(acceptance) = 0.01*1{GRE Q >= 165} + 0.01*1{GPA >= 3.3} + 0.01*1{SoP not terrible} + 0.1*(Rec Letters) + c
where the function 1A is the indicator function over the set A, (Rec Letters) is some enthusiasm score for the letters on a scale of 1-10, and c is a bias term.
My takeaway from conversations that I've had with my recommenders lead me to believe that my admission results are mostly out of my hands now. I've already gotten all the grades I'll have before they see my transcript. I've already done whatever research I could finish before they see my CV. They're also more interested in whether my professors think I'm grad school ready than if I am. So now I'm just filling out the paperwork and hoping for the best! It doesn't alleviate all the anxiety for me, but at least I can rest assured that all of the difficult parts of applying are either behind or beyond me now.
